課程大綱

課程資訊

課程名稱

專題討論上
Seminar (1)

開課學期

100-1

授課對象

哲學系

授課教師

王榮麟

課號

Phl4997

課程識別碼

104 40801

班次

學分

全/半年

全年

必/選修

選修

上課時間

星期四5(12:20~13:10)

上課地點

哲研討室三

備註

本課程中文授課,使用英文教科書。限已申請者選修。
限本系所學生(含輔系、雙修生)
總人數上限：1人

Ceiba 課程網頁

http://ceiba.ntu.edu.tw/1001semi

課程簡介影片

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課程大綱

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課程概述

因果關係與統計相關是兩回事，此乃科學上的常識。而如何從統計相關進一步宣稱有因果關係，不僅攸關科學實作，也是科學哲學上的一個重要議題。本課程主要針對「機率」(probability)、「相關」(correlation)以及「因果」(causality)等概念進行哲學性的分析。尤其著重於分析機率因果論(probabilistic theory of causality)在哪些領域上優於其他傳統討論因果關係的理論，並且深入探討此觀點在當代所遭遇到的困難以及可能的解決方案。
It is common sense that scientists draw a distinction between causal relation and statistical correlation. Now, given that a statistical correlation obtains, what additional evidence would one need to make a causal inference? An answer to such a question is of paramount importance to scientific practice, and turns out to be one of central issues in philosophy of science. This course offers a philosophical analysis of notions like “probability,” “correlation,” and “causality.” It focuses, in particular, (1) on the question as to why the probabilistic theory of causality turns out to be better than alternative accounts of causality; and (2) on the difficulties that still confront today’s probabilistic theory of causality.

課程目標

使修課學生對於傳統因果理論有所掌握，尤其是對於機率因果論有更深入的理解。並且進一步探討相關與因果此二概念的關聯性，從而認識此研究路線的困難以及可能的解決方案。

課程要求

修課學生需每週閱讀指定文本、撰寫摘要。每月撰寫約3000字短文一篇，並與授課教師討論其內容。

預期每週課後學習時數

Office Hours

指定閱讀

參考書目

Beebee, H., Hitchcock, C., Menzies P., 2009, The Oxford Handbook of Causation, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Cartwright N., 1993, “Marks and Probabilities: Two Ways to Find Causal Structure,” in Fritz Stadler (ed.), Scientific Philosophy: Origins and Development, Dordrecht: Kluwer.
Cartwright N., 1999, The Dappled World, Cambridge University Press.
Cartwright N., 2007, Hunting Causes and Using Them, Cambridge University Press.
Doll R, Hill AB., 1950, “Smoking and carcinoma of the lung. Preliminary report,” British Medical Journal, 2: 739-748.
Doll R, Hill AB., 1954, “The mortality of doctors in relation to their smoking habits,” British Medical Journal, 228:1451-5.
Eells E., 1991, Probabilistic Causality, Cambridge University Press.
Hill AB, 1965, "The Environment and Disease: Association or Causation?" Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine, 58: 295-300.
Lawrence Sklar, 2000, Probability and Confirmation, Garland Publishing, Inc.
Menzies P., 1989, “Probabilistic Causation and Causal Processes: A Critique of Lewis,” Philosophy of Science, vol. 56, No. 4.
Rosen D., 1978, “In Defense of a Probabilistic Theory of Causality,” Philosophy of Science, vol. 45, No. 4.
Russo F., Williamson J., 2007, Causality and Probability in the Sciences, Lightning Source Inc.
Shaffer J., 2001, “Causes as Probability Raisers of Processes,” The Journal of Philosophy, vol. 98, No. 2.
Shipley B., 2000, Cause and Correlation in Biology, Cambridge University Press.
Skyrms B., 1980, Causal Necessity: A Pragmatic Investigation of the Necessity of Laws, Yale University Press.
Sloman S., 2005, Causal Models : How People Think about the World And Its Alternatives, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

評量方式
(僅供參考)

No.	項目	百分比	說明
1.	短篇報告	30%
2.	討論	30%
3.	期末報告	40%

課程進度

週次	日期	單元主題
第1週	9/15	Regularity Theories Beebee, H., Hitchcock, C., Menzies P., 2009, The Oxford Handbook of Causation: 131-157.
第2週	9/22	Counterfactual Theories Beebee, H., Hitchcock, C., Menzies P., 2009, The Oxford Handbook of Causation: 158-184.
第3週	9/29	Probabilistic Theories Beebee, H., Hitchcock, C., Menzies P., 2009, The Oxford Handbook of Causation: 185-212.
第4週	10/06	Causal Process Theories Beebee, H., Hitchcock, C., Menzies P., 2009, The Oxford Handbook of Causation: 213-233.
第5週	10/13	Agency and Interventionist Theories Beebee, H., Hitchcock, C., Menzies P., 2009, The Oxford Handbook of Causation: 234-261.
第6週	10/20	Causation and Explanation Beebee, H., Hitchcock, C., Menzies P., 2009, The Oxford Handbook of Causation: 619-631.
第7週	10/27	Cause and Correlation Shipley B., 2000, Cause and Correlation in Biology: 21-64.
第8週	11/03	Cause and Correlation Shipley B., 2000, Cause and Correlation in Biology: 65-99.
第9週	11/10	期中考
第10週	11/17	Cause and Correlation Shipley B., 2000, Cause and Correlation in Biology: 100-135.
第11週	11/24	Cause and Correlation Shipley B., 2000, Cause and Correlation in Biology: 136-161.
第12週	12/01	Beyesian Model Cartwright N., 2007, Hunting Causes and Using Them: 57-96.
第13週	12/08	Beyseian Model Cartwright N., 2007, Hunting Causes and Using Them: 97-174.
第14週	12/15	Confirmation Eells E., 1991, Probabilistic Causality: 2-45.
第15週	12/22	Confirmation Eells E., 1991, Probabilistic Causality: 46-62.
第16週	12/29	Confirmation Eells E., 1991, Probabilistic Causality: 96-106.
第17週	1/05	Induction Eells E., 1991, Probabilistic Causality: 228-244.
第18週	1/12	Induction Eells E., 1991, Probabilistic Causality: 297-331.